Recruitment for recent intakes have been hampered by “significant attrition” and “very late decision making” from prospective students, Jo Johnson said during the PIE Live Europe in London.
“Removing the rights for taught masters to bring dependants, raising the visa charge, increasing the health surcharge, ending switching – all of those effects are still to be fully felt,” Johnson said.
“On top of all of that, we have an accelerated review by the Migration Advisory Committee of the Graduate Route, which has been asked to report back by May 14.
“Given the proximity of election and the way in which students are unfortunately ensnared in the debate about immigration, that’s so heated, it’s going to be a dangerous and fraught period over the next few months.”
The prime minister has been “very, very clear” that he wants a policy announcement on the Graduate Route, he continued.
“I think it’s inescapable now, unfortunately, that there will be an announcement from the government of its intentions with respect to the Graduate Route.”
However, the impact could be deferred beyond the election, with Johnson teeing up potential changes that the government could introduce.
Government could choose to reinstate a sponsorship element, add job offer, salary level or requirements to demonstrate participants can financially support themselves in the UK, he suggested.
“If you tie the MACs hands and don’t give them the time to do a proper review, you can’t really justifiably make a big change”
“All of these variables are ones that the government could want to play with, which would fall far short of the nuclear option of saying, ‘actually, we’re going to suspend this until we’re absolutely satisfied that there isn’t an unacceptable amount of abuse taking place via the Graduate Route’,” Johnson said.
The “absolutely worst case scenario and probably not the likeliest” would be suspending the route.
UUKi has already been “engaging extensively” with the MAC, deputy director of Policy and Global Engagement Harry Anderson added later in the day.
“If you look at the timescales [for the review], I think they show a government that is using the MAC for political concerns rather than policy concerns,” he said.
“The timing is coordinated and choreographed around immigration and visa announcements.
“We saw this last year when the change around dependents was announced the same week of the net migration stats.
“I think we need to be very clear as well, with any government response off the back off the MAC, if you tie the MACs hands and don’t give them the time they need to do a proper review, you can’t really, I think, justifiably make a big change in visa policy off the back of that.”
