While the conclusions of the MAC report were better than we expected, the debate around immigration will not end now that Labour have won the general election.
The ongoing impact of the crisis is real. Home Office figures show numbers were down 27% in two years. Universities UK found 88% of respondents saw a decrease in postgraduate applications compared to a year ago, with 62% for undergraduates.
Earlier in the cycle Enroly revealed that international student deposits and unconditional offers were down 54%. In recent weeks this has improved to being around 40% down across their clients but there is somewhere to go yet.
Things will likely improve now the report has been published, but the pressure on home secretary Yvetter Cooper to keep net migration numbers down will not go away.
The pressure to deliver on election promises may even make them more likely to toughen up measures, not relax them but there is the continued argument that we should not include student numbers under this target.
This is given the importance of a stable international student population in order to ensure that universities have a diverse economy of home, international and distance learning students in order to ensure universities are sustainable.
The importance of ensuring a sustainable university and higher education sector cannot be underestimated for the country.
Whatever Labour does, our industry must be pragmatic and accept the era of double digit, year over year growth is over. If we can adapt to this now the sector will be healthier in the long term.
A reset is needed.
My own view is we should aim to return to pre-pandemic numbers and at the same time diversify our talent pool and be less reliant on a small number of countries for students. We should also toughen up when it comes to the use of agents and clean up the bad practices that exist rather than bury our heads in the sand.
We may have weathered the storm with the MAC, but rather than revert to type, and do battle with the Home Secretary, we need to change, a reset is needed. Working together with Cooper and secretary of state for education Bridget Phillipson, the sector can build a system that benefits universities and the UK economy as a whole.
My fear is that the industry will think a Labour administration will be more amenable to keeping the status quo.
It won’t. Working with a Labour administration will be different, and more collegiate for many, but the same issues remain and Labour will need to control immigration.
We all know international students are an export success, contributing £42bn to the UK economy in 2021/22. They bring so much both financially and culturally. In cities like mine, Portsmouth, the knowledge economy is a net positive.
It’s not just fees. Students eat, sleep, play and work locally, bringing huge benefits to local businesses. It’s reported each constituency benefits to the tune of £58m on average. Portsmouth would be poorer without students, as would countless towns and cities across the U.K.
A collaborative, not combative approach would allow us time to right-size our operations and allow us to diversify our markets beyond China, India, and Nigeria.
A reset would allow us to embrace digital innovation to make it easier for students to apply and not put unnecessary burdens and costs in their way. This is what students have come to expect. We must remember that for students, this is the investment of a lifetime.
We’ve been preparing for this for some time at Portsmouth, but other institutions have been so burdened by the turmoil of recent years they haven’t had time. Now Labour has won I fear they will continue in the same vein and will eventually face the same problems in the future.
If I could call out three ways we’ve been adapting to the changes coming at Portsmouth they would be…
We’ve reviewed our fees and scholarships to provide flexibility where needed around payment plans. At the same time we’ve managed compliance risks with UKVI. This is a difficult balance, but through the use of technology, like Enroly, we’ve managed the uncertainty around visas, delays in arrivals and understanding the student better.
We’ve been flexible with start dates to provide the flexibility needed for students to arrive despite the delays in visa processing.
We have introduced new technology in the whole application process. We were an early adopter of the Duolingo English Test because we saw how innovation could help us reach students not served by test centres but also we believe that the approach taken by DET in the testing and the cost of its test is a game changer in the English Language testing arena.
Working with a Labour administration will be different, and more collegiate for many, but the same issues remain
This can only benefit institutions and students. It worked during the pandemic and keeping the DET long term allowed us to be ahead of the curve during this crisis. Duolingo’s offer this summer to turn around tests in 24 hours is also a real boost in processing the late applications we are hoping to receive.
This week Duolingo will host an event with Labour grandees Peter Mandelson and former Education secretary David Blunkett to discuss the future of universities under Labour.
If I could advocate for one agreement from the discussion it would be to go for a reset.
If we can stabilise enrolments over the next 12 months, widen the reach to find the best students in the global marketplace, rationalise and ensure a joined up approach across the sector on the use of and regulation of agents and its transparency, and then return to pre-pandemic numbers this would create a more sustainable future for institutions, governments and students alike.
