One of the most interesting aspects about the build-up to the results period is the different narratives that emerge.
Media commentary this year was around broader demand for higher education, with a focus on the decline in the 18-year-old application rate off the back of the surge seen during the pandemic and against a backdrop of a challenging financial climate for higher education.
As always, the true story of progression for undergraduate applicants can be found in the data. So, 28 days after level 3 results day, what can we see?
Record progression for UK 18-year-olds
The headline figure for day 28 is that record numbers of UK 18-year-olds have secured a place at university or college this year, with 277,790 acceptances compared to 270,350 (+2.8 per cent) in 2023 and 239,460 (+16.0 per cent) in 2019. This is against a backdrop of a relatively small numerical growth in applicants and a declining application rate. Yet 2024 UCAS data shows that last year’s decrease in the proportion of accepted UK 18-year-olds has reversed, increasing from 35.6 per cent in 2023 to 36.2 per cent this year.
The growth in acceptances for UK 18-year-olds drives the overall picture, with mature participation (UK aged 21 and over) declining to 64,180 from 66,360 in 2023 (-3.3 per cent) and 79,010 (-19 per cent) in 2019. When looking at overall acceptances (all ages, all domiciles), 498,340 applicants secured a place compared to 493,940 (+0.9 per cent) last year and 495,620 (+0.5 per cent) in 2019 – albeit lower than the pandemic-driven peak of 515,650 (-3.4 per cent) in 2020. The further out we move from the pandemic, the more we realise how anomalous these years for progression.
In many respects, the increase in 18-year-old accepted applicants was to be expected. This cycle saw a record number of offers – over 2 million – and an increase in the offer rate across the board. More students went into results day with that all important offer in hand. Historically, when the offer rate increases, so do acceptances.
Growth most pronounced at higher tariff institutions
At a headline level, we have seen a modest increase in the total number of accepted undergraduate applicants. But how has this played out across the sector?
UCAS day 28 data shows higher tariff providers have grown among UK 18-year-olds, with 104,500 acceptances compared with 92,500 (+13.0 per cent) in 2023 – returning to the levels seen in 2021, when numbers increased as a result of the pandemic.
By contrast, medium tariffs have accepted 92,380 UK 18-year-olds, down from 93,910 (-1.6%) last year, while lower tariffs have placed 80,910 compared to 83,940 (-3.6 per cent) last year.
In total, 61,110 international applicants (all ages) have received a place this year, marginally down on 61,470 (-0.6 per cent) last year. But the headline figure only tells you so much about the fluid international undergraduate market.
China remains by far the largest international market with 14,890 acceptances (-1.9 per cent on last year), followed by India (4,770, -3.8 per cent) and Hong Kong (3,120, -6.3 per cent). The biggest growth in numeric terms has been seen from Turkey (1,370, +350, +34.3 per cent), Singapore (1,680, + 130, +8.4 per cent) and Canada (1,580, +120, +8.2 per cent). This is the second year that Turkey has seen significant growth.
Equally, these figures should be viewed against the backdrop of widely reported declines in demand for postgraduate study from international students, which will be of concern to many across the sector.
Clearing spiked early before slowing down
In recent years, we have seen growing and significant numbers of applicants using Clearing – and this year is no different.
A record 68,810 applicants (all ages, all domiciles) have been placed in Clearing to date, up from 67,990 (+1.2 per cent) in 2023 and 65,810 (+4.6 per cent) in 2019. It is clear applicants are using Clearing for a range of reasons – whether they have reconsidered their original decision, are applying for the first time or because they haven’t quite secured the grades they need for their firm course. With just under 30,000 courses available, there was plenty of choice available (and there still is, as Clearing remains open until October 21).
The dynamism of Clearing has been particularly notable this year, with activity ramping up quickly from 1pm on results day but then slowing down almost as fast. The day after results day (Day 1), 22,170 applicants had been placed in Clearing while by Day 15 the total stood at 60,930 (+38,760 applicants on Day 1) and by Day 28 it is 68,810 (+7,880 applicants on Day 15) – with the pace of activity slowing considerably after the first few days. While this is a feature every year, the front-loading of activity this year was particularly pronounced.
In years gone by, Clearing was perceived as a process for students that had not been successful in gaining their preferred choice, to find an alternative available course. However, through the introduction of Decline My Place, we are better able to capture student behaviour and see that the largest active group of students in Clearing are those that put themselves there proactively.
The reasons for the use of Decline My Place are varied and individual, ranging from the discovery of a new passion or a change in individual circumstances.
When looking at the movement of students across tariff groups, the most common movement is within tariff bands but we do see evidence of movement across the bands. For example, 30 per cent of those releasing from a higher tariff provider went on to find a place at another higher tariff provider and 36 per cent went from lower tariff to lower tariff. Meanwhile 22 per cent of those releasing from lower tariff have moved to a medium tariff provider – and six per cent to a higher tariff provider.
When we look at subjects, 56 per cent of placed Decline My Place users remained within their broad subject group, whereas 44 per cent switched to a different subject group. The most common pathway is biological sciences to subjects allied to medicine, followed by the reverse movement.
Two other noticeable points can be seen through the analysis of students that use Decline My Place. Firstly, of the 42,320 students that use it, 4,830 are international – and are likely to be declining their place in favour of a different country, as opposed to institution. Secondly, we also see that 51 per cent of UK placed students that use Decline My Place do so to move to an institution closer to home.
More disadvantaged students placed – but gap widens
We have seen a mixed picture in relation to widening access this cycle. Ultimately, there is cause for celebration, with more of the most disadvantaged applicants getting a place at university or college. As readers of this article will know, there are a range of measures used to track progress in widening access and on results day a number of them were showing record numbers of placed students.
This story has persisted, buoyed by the increased acceptance rate seen this cycle. Day 28 data shows the number of UK 18-year-olds from the lowest progression areas (POLAR4 quintile 1) has risen this year to 32,540 up from 31,140 in 2023 (+4.5 per cent). Across other measures, we also see growth in students in receipt of free school meals (FSM), TUNDRA Q1 and IMD Q1.
The higher education sector as a whole has made considerable progress in widening access, with disadvantaged young people 33 per cent more likely to go to university now than they were a decade ago. Having said that, it is right to note that the gap between the most and least advantaged has remained at 2.19 this cycle, the same as for 2023.
Widening access is increasingly viewed through a regional lens. Stark differences exist in participation. As widely reported already, 70 per cent of 18-year-olds in Wimbledon progress to higher education compared to 13 per cent in Barrow and Furness. Day 28 shows that most regions have seen an increase in participation but significant gaps remain. Factors such as ethnicity, availability of provision, rural/urban split and school type all play a role in varying levels of participation seen regionally.
Every year, UCAS supports hundreds of thousands of students to make decisions about their future. As always, our core focus is on ensuring that as many students as possible can benefit from the life-changing opportunity of HE and find the right course in which they can succeed.
