For the past couple of years, the USA has become known as the sleeping giant of the international education arena. Having been slow to recover international student footfall following President Donald Trump’s first term in the White House and his introduction of controversial travel bans on students from predominantly Muslim countries, the US had only just started to wake up to renewed interest from the outside world.
Data from the close of 2024 shows international student numbers in the US had reached an all-time high, with India surpassing China as the top student-sending country. Now, however, all this could be set to change with just days to go before the inauguration of President Trump: mark two.
Growing fears
Ever since the Republican candidate won the US election in November 2024, international students in the US have expressed fears for their futures, concerned over the return to a hardline stance on immigration as per the first Trump presidency.
While these students are waiting to see if these fears play out, prospective students in the process of considering their options have the freedom to vote with their feet over the coming months and explore study options elsewhere in world. This includes budding US students, who are becoming a growing recruitment pool for UK universities and who may be disillusioned with the prospect of studying under the looming Trump administration.
The shifting picture
For UK universities, the climate in the English-speaking world has not been this favourable in a long while. Further to the pending presidential changes in the US, the recent resignation of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Canada leaves the door open for a likely return to a Conservative government on the USA’s northern border. This may diminish hopes of any relief from the international student caps recently imposed in the country.
Similarly, ongoing debates in Australia about caps on international student enrolments at an institutional level has damaged the previously care-free Aussie brand. The resulting visa processing directive (MD 111) gives priority to visas for Australian universities that have not yet reached 80% of their allocated cap. This leaves uncertainty for prospective students as to whether their visa will be accepted at their chosen institution.
The AI revolution
All the while, UK universities are settling into life under a new Labour government. For now at least, it has left the two-year-post-study work visa intact and has actively issued a ministerial welcome to international students.
To kickstart the New Year, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer even chose the new UCL East campus on January 13 as an appropriate backdrop in the world’s best student city to roll out ambitious plans to make the UK a global AI powerhouse. In his speech, he said, “we’ve got the high potential visa routes for the world’s top talent to move here… And we’re going to make it easier for tomorrow’s talent to learn here.” So, there’s certainly promise afoot for competitive visa conditions at least in STEM and AI-related subject areas.
Domestic wranglings
While the UK government will have the final say over policies to achieve and retain a competitive edge for British universities in the race for international talent, it cannot control wider domestic political developments. This includes the growing popularity of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party and pressure from the Conservatives to tackle rising net migration figures.
Rolling out a bold welcome for international students could therefore be the ‘red meat’ that opposition parties need to paint the government as ‘soft’ on immigration at a time when it is already losing public confidence over the economy.
As these domestic wranglings inevitably play out on the nation’s front pages, the world will be watching. For the Great British bounce-back in international education to become a reality, the government needs to show prospective students that they are not only welcome here but truly valued here. That will require much more than a public proclamation of trust in AI, but the clear and consistent articulation of the invaluable contribution that international students make to British society, both in local places and to the national economy and public services.
The baton of international study appeal is now well within our grasp. What we need from our nation’s policymakers is a giant leap of faith to take it and run with it for the future of our global standing.
